Updated: Mar 8
Hello and welcome to the first edition of Midwest Golf Guides betting picks for this weekends Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. This is something I’ll try to do every week on Tuesday or Wednesday leading up to the PGA tournament. I will also update with round matchups as they become available every night. Be sure to leave a comment with your picks as well! For reference, we’ll be using the Draftkings Sportsbook for our bets.
We were up 7 units last week, and 6 the week before thanks to a Sunday Max Homa live bet. Let's look to continue that streak.
Will Zalatoris Top 20 (+188) 3 units... Win, +5.6 Units… Top 10 on tour in strokes gained with his approach, top 10 in strokes gained tee to green this season… As long as he can sink a few putts this week I love this play.
Matthew Fitzpatrick Top 5 (+550) 1 unit.... LOSS… Had a strong week last week at The Concession and has logged a runner up here at Bay Hill in 2019. He can get hot in a hurry, so look for him to be around the top of the leaderboard come the weekend.
Marc Leishman Top 30 (+150) 2 units… MISSED CUT (lost) This will be his 12th time playing this event, and has finished top 25 in 6 of the first 11 including and 5 years straight (1st, 2nd, 7th, 17th, & 23rd). He’s made 6 cuts in a row, so expect Marc to be right in the thick of things this weekend.
Jordan Spieth Winner (+3300) 0.5 units LOSS... We all want to be a part of it when it happens, right?
Round 1 Matchup Parlay (ties = no bet) +1336 0.5 units (WINNER, new +400 odds, +2 units)
Leishman over Howell (Push)
Oosthuizen over Cameron Davis. (Oosthuizen WD'd No action)
Zalatoris over Clark (W)
Na over Lowry (W)
Fitzpatrick over English (W)
Round 1 Matchup plays (all 1 unit) Tie no bet (2-0-1, +2 units)
Na over Lowry -136 (W)
Lieshman over Howell -148 (Push)
Todd over Fritelli -136 (W)
ROUND 1 UPDATE: +4 units. Oosthuizen W/D surprised me this morning, didn't have time to swap any picks in the parlay. Zalatoris and Leish have some work to d0, but Fitzpatrick came out strong today. The top 15 on the leaderboard is packed with big names, should make for an exciting tournament to come! Nice to have 4 units already in the pocket on Thursday.
Round 2 Matchup plays (all 1 unit) Tie no bet 2-0-0 +2 units
Tommy Fleetwood over Cameron Tringale -129 (W)
Patrick Reed over Billy Horschel -129 (W)
Parlay +2700 (.5 units) LOSS -.5 units
Reed over Horschel (W)
Fleetwood over Tringale
Zalatoris over clark (W)
Fitzpatrick over English (L)
Norlander over Straka
Todd over Fritelli (Push)
Round 2 UPDATE: +1.5 Units, +5.5 Total
Round 3 plays:
Live bet Hatton Top 20 +188 1 unit... LOSS
Only needs to make up 2 strokes on the field, shot 5 under today after 5 over yesterday. Love this pick for the former champ.
No Round 4 plays, enjoying the finish and letting my pre tourney plays ride out.
Overall: +6.6 Units - 3rd straight profitable week.